Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

S Guzzinati; F Toffolutti; S Francisci; A De Paoli; F Giudici; R De Angelis; E Demuru; L Botta; A Tavilla; G Gatta; R Capocaccia; M Zorzi; A Caldarella; E Bidoli; F Falcini; R Bruni; E Migliore; A Puppo; M Ferrante; C Gasparotti; M L Gambino; G Carrozzi; F Bianconi; A Musolino; R Cavallo; W Mazzucco; M Fusco; P Ballotari; G Sampietro; S Ferretti; L Mangone; W Mantovani; M Mian; G Cascone; F Manzoni; R Galasso; D Piras; M T Pesce; F Bella; P Seghini; A C Fanetti; P Pinna; D Serraino; S Rossi; L Dal Maso; AIRTUM Working Group

doi:10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

S Guzzinati
, F Toffolutti
, S Francisci
, A De Paoli
, F Giudici
, R De Angelis
, E Demuru
, L Botta
, A Tavilla
, G Gatta
, R Capocaccia
, M Zorzi
, A Caldarella
, E Bidoli
, F Falcini
, R Bruni
, E Migliore
, A Puppo
, M Ferrante
, C Gasparotti

M L Gambino, G Carrozzi, F Bianconi, A Musolino, R Cavallo, W Mazzucco, M Fusco, P Ballotari, G Sampietro, S Ferretti, L Mangone, W Mantovani, M Mian, G Cascone, F Manzoni, R Galasso, D Piras, M T Pesce, F Bella, P Seghini, A C Fanetti, P Pinna, D Serraino, S Rossi, L Dal Maso, AIRTUM Working Group

Bolzano Hospital

Veneto Tumour Registry
Cancer Epidemiology Unit
National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health
Evaluative Epidemiology Unit
Epidemiologia & Prevenzione Editorial Board
Ludwig Institute for Cancer Research
Emilia-Romagna Cancer Registry
Coordination Centre of the Cancer Registry of Puglia - Strategic Regional Agency for Health and Social Care (AReSS)
Centro di Riferimento per l'Epidemiologia e la Prevenzione Oncologica (CPO) Piemonte and University of Turin
Liguria Cancer Registry
Registro tumori integrato di Catania-Messina-Enna
ATS Brescia Cancer Registry
Registro tumori ATS Insubria (Provincia di Como e Varese) Responsabile S.S. Epidemiologia Registri Specializzati e Reti di Patologia
Umbria Cancer Registry
Parma University Hospital
Registro Tumori ASL Salerno-Dipartimento di Prevenzione
Clinical Epidemiology and Cancer Registry Unit
Napoli
SC Osservatorio Epidemiologico
Bergamo Cancer Registry
Trento Province Cancer Registry
Teaching Hospital of the Paracelsus Medical Private University (PMU)
Krankenhaus Bozen
Azienda Sanitaria Provinciale Ragusa - UOSD Registro Tumori
Cancer Registry of the Province of Pavia - Epidemiology Unit - Health Protection Agency of Pavia
Unit of Regional Cancer Registry
Nord Sardegna Cancer Registry
Monitoraggio rischio ambientale e Registro Tumori ASL Caserta
Siracusa Cancer Registry
Agenzia di Tutela della Salute della Montagna Cancer Registry
Nuoro Cancer Registry

Research output: Contribution to journal › Original Article › peer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.

RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).

CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	103635
Journal	ESMO OPEN
Volume	9
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635
Publication status	Published - Jul 2024

Keywords

Humans
Italy/epidemiology
Female
Male
Prevalence
Neoplasms/epidemiology
Aged
Middle Aged
Adult
Adolescent
Young Adult
Child
Aged, 80 and over
Registries
Cancer Survivors/statistics & numerical data
Child, Preschool
Infant
Forecasting
Infant, Newborn

Access to Document

10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

Cite this

Guzzinati, S., Toffolutti, F., Francisci, S., De Paoli, A., Giudici, F., De Angelis, R., Demuru, E., Botta, L., Tavilla, A., Gatta, G., Capocaccia, R., Zorzi, M., Caldarella, A., Bidoli, E., Falcini, F., Bruni, R., Migliore, E., Puppo, A., Ferrante, M., ... AIRTUM Working Group (2024). Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030. ESMO OPEN, 9(7), 103635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

@article{838d5f62baef4c12adc77917c790eeaf,

title = "Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47\% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6\% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5\% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9\% of the resident population, 7.6\% of women and ∼22\% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52\% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86\% for all patients alive in 2018 (87\% for patients with breast cancer and 99\% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93\% for patients alive after 5 years and 96\% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5\% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3\%), lung (11.1\%), kidney (13.2\%), and bladder (15.5\%).CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.",

keywords = "Humans, Italy/epidemiology, Female, Male, Prevalence, Neoplasms/epidemiology, Aged, Middle Aged, Adult, Adolescent, Young Adult, Child, Aged, 80 and over, Registries, Cancer Survivors/statistics \& numerical data, Child, Preschool, Infant, Forecasting, Infant, Newborn",

author = "S Guzzinati and F Toffolutti and S Francisci and \{De Paoli\}, A and F Giudici and \{De Angelis\}, R and E Demuru and L Botta and A Tavilla and G Gatta and R Capocaccia and M Zorzi and A Caldarella and E Bidoli and F Falcini and R Bruni and E Migliore and A Puppo and M Ferrante and C Gasparotti and Gambino, \{M L\} and G Carrozzi and F Bianconi and A Musolino and R Cavallo and W Mazzucco and M Fusco and P Ballotari and G Sampietro and S Ferretti and L Mangone and W Mantovani and M Mian and G Cascone and F Manzoni and R Galasso and D Piras and Pesce, \{M T\} and F Bella and P Seghini and Fanetti, \{A C\} and P Pinna and D Serraino and S Rossi and \{Dal Maso\}, L and \{AIRTUM Working Group\}",

note = "als Author Innovation, Research and Teaching Service (SABES-ASDAA), Teaching Hospital of the Paracelsus Medical Private University (PMU)",

year = "2024",

month = jul,

doi = "10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635",

language = "English",

volume = "9",

pages = "103635",

journal = "ESMO OPEN",

issn = "2059-7029",

publisher = "Elsevier ",

number = "7",

}

Guzzinati, S, Toffolutti, F, Francisci, S, De Paoli, A, Giudici, F, De Angelis, R, Demuru, E, Botta, L, Tavilla, A, Gatta, G, Capocaccia, R, Zorzi, M, Caldarella, A, Bidoli, E, Falcini, F, Bruni, R, Migliore, E, Puppo, A, Ferrante, M, Gasparotti, C, Gambino, ML, Carrozzi, G, Bianconi, F, Musolino, A, Cavallo, R, Mazzucco, W, Fusco, M, Ballotari, P, Sampietro, G, Ferretti, S, Mangone, L, Mantovani, W, Mian, M, Cascone, G, Manzoni, F, Galasso, R, Piras, D, Pesce, MT, Bella, F, Seghini, P, Fanetti, AC, Pinna, P, Serraino, D, Rossi, S, Dal Maso, L & AIRTUM Working Group 2024, 'Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030', ESMO OPEN, vol. 9, no. 7, pp. 103635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

TY - JOUR

T1 - Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

AU - Guzzinati, S

AU - Toffolutti, F

AU - Francisci, S

AU - De Paoli, A

AU - Giudici, F

AU - De Angelis, R

AU - Demuru, E

AU - Botta, L

AU - Tavilla, A

AU - Gatta, G

AU - Capocaccia, R

AU - Zorzi, M

AU - Caldarella, A

AU - Bidoli, E

AU - Falcini, F

AU - Bruni, R

AU - Migliore, E

AU - Puppo, A

AU - Ferrante, M

AU - Gasparotti, C

AU - Gambino, M L

AU - Carrozzi, G

AU - Bianconi, F

AU - Musolino, A

AU - Cavallo, R

AU - Mazzucco, W

AU - Fusco, M

AU - Ballotari, P

AU - Sampietro, G

AU - Ferretti, S

AU - Mangone, L

AU - Mantovani, W

AU - Mian, M

AU - Cascone, G

AU - Manzoni, F

AU - Galasso, R

AU - Piras, D

AU - Pesce, M T

AU - Bella, F

AU - Seghini, P

AU - Fanetti, A C

AU - Pinna, P

AU - Serraino, D

AU - Rossi, S

AU - Dal Maso, L

AU - AIRTUM Working Group

N1 - als Author Innovation, Research and Teaching Service (SABES-ASDAA), Teaching Hospital of the Paracelsus Medical Private University (PMU)

PY - 2024/7

Y1 - 2024/7

N2 - BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

AB - BACKGROUND: The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.RESULTS: A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).CONCLUSIONS: Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

KW - Humans

KW - Italy/epidemiology

KW - Female

KW - Male

KW - Prevalence

KW - Neoplasms/epidemiology

KW - Aged

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Adult

KW - Adolescent

KW - Young Adult

KW - Child

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Registries

KW - Cancer Survivors/statistics & numerical data

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - Infant

KW - Forecasting

KW - Infant, Newborn

U2 - 10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

DO - 10.1016/j.esmoop.2024.103635

M3 - Original Article

C2 - 39043021

SN - 2059-7029

VL - 9

SP - 103635

JO - ESMO OPEN

JF - ESMO OPEN

IS - 7

ER -

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this